Gametime: Sunday, January 12, 2020, at 2:05 p.m.
Location: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
Network: CBS
Following Baltimore’s shocking loss to Tennessee, the Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) have a chance to host the AFC Conference Championship. But first, they have to move past the Houston Texans (11-6), who travel to Kansas City, MO for what is just their fourth time in franchise history and they are looking very confident.
The Texans previously beat the Chiefs 31-24 earlier this year on Oct. 13, 2019, and expect to repeat the same result.
Houston’s offense is led by another up and coming quarterback in Deshaun Watson, who put together his own highlight reel against Buffalo during Wildcard weekend, throwing for 289 yards and a touchdown to come back from a 16-8 deficit to defeat the Bills.
Kansas City isn’t phased however, they are a far more improved team since October and for what it’s worth, a lot healthier. Even though tight end Travis Kelce and defensive tackle Chris Jones are considered to be game-time decisions.
Nevertheless, Kansas City was without WR Sammy Watkins, LT Eric Fisher, LG Andrew Wylie, DT Chris Jones, and LB Anthony Hitchens. Plus, Tyreek Hill had just returned from a collarbone injury that kept him out since Week 1 and Patrick Mahomes was playing on a bum ankle that he would re-injure during that game against Houston.
Houston Head Coach Bill O’Brien’s formula that led to the Texans sealing the victory over Kansas City was utilizing their run game with Carlos Hyde to dominate TOP in order to keep Mahomes off the field and they did a marvelous job defensively, containing the Chiefs offense using man-coverage sets.
Ultimately, Kansas City’s inability to defend the Texans’ run game and Andy Reid’s stubbornness towards not running the ball to keep Houston honest, doomed the Chiefs.
But there’s a reason for optimism.
The Kansas City run defense has since improved and has allowed an average 94.6 yards a game over the previous six weeks and have allowed just one 100-yard rusher and two rushing TDs over that span.
Another stat that needs attention is how the Chiefs defense has improved in the red zone. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, Kansas City has allowed 58-percent (23/40) of opposing red zone drives to result in touchdowns. But over the last six games, they’ve only allowed 35-percent (6/17) which ranks best in the league.
In comparison, Houston’s defense ranks second to worst in the red zone defense, allowing 71-percent of opposing drives to wind up in the end zone.
A huge advantage for Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs offense which is also improved since Week 6 of the season. Pat Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are a 100-percent, the o-line is intact and so far, there hasn’t been a team that can stop all the weapons the Chiefs have on offense in regards to Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins, LeSean McCoy, and Travis Kelce, assuming he plays.
But the Texans have offensive weapons of their own in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, both of whom are premier receivers in the NFL and were largely involved in their offensive production last time they went up against the Chiefs.
Hopkins had nine receptions for 55 yards and Fuller had six catches for 44 yards but neither scored a touchdown. Houston will likely be looking to dial-up some big plays that’ll change that this time around but they’ll be going up against an improved Chiefs secondary.
Led by the Tyann Mathieu, Kansas City’s secondary has allowed just 5 touchdowns and forced 10 interceptions over the previous six weeks.
Last time, Deshaun Watson threw two picks against the Chiefs struggling pass defense. Now, the Chiefs will look to continue the trend of strong defensive play they’ve built over the past six weeks going into the postseason.
