On Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs finished the 2021 regular season on a high note with a 28-24 victory over the Denver Broncos.
The Chiefs are the top seed in the AFC playoff picture. However, they won’t clinch home-field advantage unless the Houston Texans collect the upset against the Tennessee Titans, who hold the tie-breaker over Kansas City from their win over the Chiefs back in Week 7.
But if Houston does pull a rabbit out of a hat on Sunday afternoon, they already beat the Titans earlier this year, then the rest of this article will be irrelevant.
That’s why most of Chiefs Kingdom will have their eyes glued to the game in Houston. But if Tennessee takes care of business, then the Chiefs will keep the No. 2 seed, and the next question will be who will stroll into Arrowhead Stadium as the 7th seed?
Courtesy of ESPN’s NFL Playoff Machine, which is a pretty nifty tool that automatically figures playoff scenarios by simply picking regular-season games, there are five different opponents Kansas City could play in the wildcard round next week if Tennessee defeats Houston.
So kick your feet up, Chiefs fans; these are the games you’ll want to keep your eye on.
Outside the game in Houston, the matchups that will impact who the Chiefs play next week will be Colts/Jaguars, Raiders/Chargers, and if things get super crazy, Steelers/Ravens is also a matchup to keep tabs on.
The most likely scenario is the one below.
If Tennessee beats Houston, coupled with a Colts win and a Chargers victory over Las Vegas, then Kansas City will play Justin Herbert and the L.A. Chargers for a third time this season.
Kansas City has never beaten Herbert inside Arrowhead Stadium, losing the previous two meetings in K.C. dating back to last season. Sure, the game in 2020 was when Andy Reid pulled his starters, but still. A win over the Chargers in the postseason would be fitting for the Revenge Tour as Kansas City eyes another Super Bowl run.
The second likely scenario will occur if Las Vegas picks up a win on Sunday night.
If Tennessee and Indy both take care of business but the Raiders beat the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs will welcome Jonathan Taylor and the Colts to Arrowhead Stadium.
I think this is the one matchup most Chiefs fans don’t want. Although Mahomes beat the Colts in the playoffs back in 2018, one win doesn’t make up for the PTSD Indy has caused Chiefs Kingdom since the mid-90s.
While Chargers and Colts are the two most likely wildcard opponents for the Chiefs, assuming Houston doesn’t beat Tennessee, the real craziness would occur if Indianapolis loses their game against Jacksonville.
This is where the Steelers/Ravens game comes into play. If Tennessee wins, coupled with a Jags upset over the Colts, the Steelers beat Baltimore, and the Raiders win over the Chargers, then Kansas City will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers for a second time this season.
We’re grasping at straws at this point because the odds the Jaguars best the Colts are slim to none. But if it happens, several teams could slide into the 7th seed, one of them being Pittsburgh.
There’s also a way three teams from the AFC West could play on wildcard weekend.
If Tennessee beats the Texans, combined with a Baltimore win or tie over Pittsburgh, Jacksonville upsetting the Colts, and the Chargers beating or tieing Las Vegas; then the Chiefs would face the Raiders in the playoffs for the first time since the Marty Schottenheimer era.
Finally, there’s a way Baltimore could make the postseason.
If Baltimore wins at home over the Steelers coupled with wins by the Titans, Jaguars, and Raiders, then Kansas City will have a chance to redeem their loss to the Ravens back in Week 2.
Kansas City is no longer in control of its destiny and will need some help to clinch home-field advantage. But if Houston cannot get it done, these are the games fans will want to keep their eye on as the AFC playoff picture begins to finalize.
